Keoni Painter wasn’t supposed to play Saturday.
Had he not entered to pinch run for BYU in the bottom of the seventh inning, he likely would have remained in the home dugout. But the trajectory of the contest altered his fate, and two innings later, he left Oklahoma State closer Noah Wech on the wrong end of a postgame celebration for the second time this weekend.
OSU dropped Saturday’s rubber game against BYU 5-4 at Miller Park. Despite leading for 22 innings in total this series, the Cowboys (17-11, 3-6 Big 12) were walked off for the second time in three days — courtesy of Painter’s two-out, two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth inning — and suffered a costly series loss.
How costly? To be determined.
OSU hasn’t played well away from O'Brate Stadium this season, donning a 4-7 clip in road contests after Saturday. And the Cougars (13-13, 4-5 Big 12) are merely a footnote in contrast to the level of competition still awaiting the Cowboys over the final two months of the regular season.
Here are three takeaways from the game.
Ninth inning implosion comes costly
Similarly to Thursday, OSU held a late lead. And similarly to Thursday, it dissipated moments later.
The Cowboys led BYU 4-2 heading into the bottom of the ninth, poised to clinch a pivotal series victory on the road. Wech had already escaped a bases-loaded jam one inning prior, and had momentum on his side.
But the Cougars didn’t waver.
A two-out, RBI triple from Ezra McNaughton trimmed the deficit to one run. Which set up Painter’s late-game heroics.
On an 0-1 pitch, Painter unloaded on a four-seam fastball low in the strike zone. His facial expression didn’t indicate he foresaw a home run the moment of bat-to-ball contact. But as the ball sailed further toward center field, the end result grew all the more apparent.
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Moments later, it sailed over the batter’s eye in dead center field as fans present at Miller Park erupted into a frenzy.
Two-run, walk-off home run. Ballgame.
Within a span of two at-bats, the Cowboys fate had changed. And two decisive swings put a damper on their end result to the weekend.
Offensive stagnancy over latter innings nabs OSU again
For the third time this weekend, OSU’s offense ignited early.
Sophomore shortstop Brock Thompson drew first blood for the Cowboys with a one-out, RBI single in between the 5-6 gap to make it 1-0. Center fielder Kollin Ritchie followed suit with a two-out, two-RBI single down the right field line to extend the frame.
OSU plated three runs off three hits and two walks to take a 3-0 lead through three innings. But from that point on, the bats went dead silent.
Fifteen of the ensuing 16 OSU batters were retired. Only seven struck out, which was an improvement upon the first two games. However, it’s worth noting that most of the at-bats were noncompetitive and ended in a weak-contact ground out or fly out.
Ritchie — who led the way offensively with a 2-for-4, three-RBI day at the plate — ended the hitting drought with a two-out, opposite-field solo home run to make it 4-2. But that was the last of OSU’s offensive production the rest of the way.
Shortly after came Painter’s walk-off home run.
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Saturday wasn’t an isolated incident. It was a parallel product to most of OSU’s Big 12 losses this season.
On Thursday, OSU erupted with an early 3-0 lead after the first inning. Only four hits and two runs followed over the latter eight innings, ending in a 6-5 walk-off win for BYU in extra innings.
During OSU’s series opener against Baylor on March 20, the Cowboys led 4-2 through five innings. Only two hits followed over the latter four, as they left the bases loaded twice in a 6-4 loss.
Two weeks ago during OSU’s series opener at UCF, the Cowboys got off to a thunderous 6-0 lead through two innings. Fast-forward, offensive stagnancies resurfaced in a 12-11 loss.
On paper, the Cowboys have enough firepower to be less one-dimensional on offense in contrast to recent years. So far, however, that hasn’t been the case. And if such trends aren’t fixed, greater troubles could await this team.
The road ahead
OSU’s tumultuous start to Big 12 play is already astonishing, and its road ahead doesn’t lighten, either.
Next weekend, a surging Cincinnati team comes to Stillwater. One week later, the Cowboys travel to Manhattan for a road series against a scorching-hot Kansas State offense. Shortly after, a road trip to West Texas for a showdown against a refined Texas Tech ball club — another squad that features an elite offense.
With Saturday’s loss, OSU dropped to 62nd in the RPI, which would place the Cowboys precisely on the cusp of the bubble if the Field of 64 were to be unveiled Monday. Simultaneously, a plethora of opportunities await OSU over the next month.
A midweek win at Dallas Baptist on Tuesday might serve as a resume-booster down the road. A victory against Bedlam rival Oklahoma in Tulsa on April 14 — a series in which OSU has fared well under coach Josh Holliday — would also be a plus for the Cowboys from a resume standpoint.
Holliday’s teams have often performed notably better down the final stretch of the regular season. So, it isn’t far-fetched to anticipate OSU finishing over .500 in conference play, despite its unideal start. After all, it started last season 1-6 and finished 15-12.
However, given the stronghold the SEC has on the college baseball realm and the reality of mid-major bid-stealers in conference tournament play, a winning record in Big 12 play likely wouldn’t suffice. If the Cowboys can steal at least two of their remaining series against Cincinnati, K-State, Texas Tech, Arizona State and TCU, OSU fans can likely feel at ease heading into the selection show. That is, of course, assuming this team does finish with a winning record in conference play.
At the same time, nothing is guaranteed. And if the same recurrent woes — offensive stagnancy over latter innings, hitting struggles with runners in scoring position and late-game bullpen blemishes — that have profusely plagued this team over the first half of the season continue to surface, OSU’s 12-year regional streak might be in jeopardy.
